Predicting hurricane patterns is always a blustery business, and the new hurricane season that begins today looks to be atypical. The Associated Press reports that the The National Hurricane Center predicts that there may be as many as 18 named tropical storms this season and that three to six of them will be major hurricanes.

But there is even greater unpredictability in those projections. Generally forecasters rely upon tracking El Nino and La Nina. These are ocean warming and cooling trends that can either start hurricanes or subdue them. But not this year,  El Nino and La Nina the forecasters say are in “neutral” position the AP reports.

That’s potentially very bad news. The last time that happened Hurricanes Katrina and Rita rose out of the Atlantic and wreaked havoc across the Gulf Coast where tornadoes and flooding has already taken their toll on Louisiana and Alabama this spring.

In an average year, there are 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, of which two are major.

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