Handicapping the Iowa Caucuses

Experts predict Romney or Paul to win the top spot.

Michele Bachmann - How the mighty have fallen. After winning Iowa’s Ames straw poll, Rep. Michele Bachmann is struggling to gain traction and polling in the single digits. University of Louisville political scientist Dewey Clayton predicts that the former Tea Party darling could leave Iowa with a broken heart and reassessing whether to stay in the race. “Bachmann has lost a lot of steam, which speaks to an inability to organize on the ground,” adds former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. “It will be tough for her to win, despite a wonderful beginning.” — Joyce Jones (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Michele Bachmann - How the mighty have fallen. After winning Iowa’s Ames straw poll, Rep. Michele Bachmann is struggling to gain traction and polling in the single digits. University of Louisville political scientist Dewey Clayton predicts that the former Tea Party darling could leave Iowa with a broken heart and reassessing whether to stay in the race. “Bachmann has lost a lot of steam, which speaks to an inability to organize on the ground,” adds former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. “It will be tough for her to win, despite a wonderful beginning.” — Joyce Jones (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Newt Gingrich - Former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s surge didn’t last very long, a testament to how $10 million in negative advertising attacks by rivals can kill a campaign. “He’s fallen from the top perch and will probably land in second or third place,” says Steele, adding that a stronger ground game could have prevented Gingrich’s slide from taking hold. (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Newt Gingrich - Former House speaker Newt Gingrich’s surge didn’t last very long, a testament to how $10 million in negative advertising attacks by rivals can kill a campaign. “He’s fallen from the top perch and will probably land in second or third place,” says Steele, adding that a stronger ground game could have prevented Gingrich’s slide from taking hold. (Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Jon Huntsman - “Is he still running?” quips Heritage Foundation analyst Brian Darling. “I don’t think Jon Huntsman will register in Iowa. He’s probably hoping that the field will narrow by the New Hampshire primary.” Steele agrees, adding that Huntsman never had any expectations for Iowa.(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Jon Huntsman - “Is he still running?” quips Heritage Foundation analyst Brian Darling. “I don’t think Jon Huntsman will register in Iowa. He’s probably hoping that the field will narrow by the New Hampshire primary.” Steele agrees, adding that Huntsman never had any expectations for Iowa.(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

Rick Perry - Clayton believes that Texas Gov. Rick Perry “seems to have gotten his act together a bit” but not enough to help him break into the top tier. “He may come in fourth, but has a large war chest to continue on in the race,” says Clayton. Perry’s challenge is capturing the conservative votes being siphoned off by Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, adds Steele, who predicts “he’ll have a rough day, coming in at fourth or fifth place.”(Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

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Rick Perry - Clayton believes that Texas Gov. Rick Perry “seems to have gotten his act together a bit” but not enough to help him break into the top tier. “He may come in fourth, but has a large war chest to continue on in the race,” says Clayton. Perry’s challenge is capturing the conservative votes being siphoned off by Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, adds Steele, who predicts “he’ll have a rough day, coming in at fourth or fifth place.”(Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Ron Paul - Texas Rep. Ron Paul “is in the driver’s seat,” says Steele. “He’s got resources, personnel on the ground, organization and a newly found momentum to help him. He’ll come in first or second.” But according to Darling, who also expects Paul to do well, even at first or second he’ll never win the GOP nomination.(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Ron Paul - Texas Rep. Ron Paul “is in the driver’s seat,” says Steele. “He’s got resources, personnel on the ground, organization and a newly found momentum to help him. He’ll come in first or second.” But according to Darling, who also expects Paul to do well, even at first or second he’ll never win the GOP nomination.(Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images)

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Mitt Romney - “Mitt Romney came late to the Iowa game, holding off for fear of being trounced by attacks from more conservative party members,” says Steele. “But in light of Newt Gingrich’s difficulties and a split conservative vote, he’s hoping to squeak through and win, which may be the case.” Steele thinks Romney could place first or second, and he’s betting on the latter, “but it’s not necessarily momentum building because tougher races lie ahead in South Carolina and Florida.”(Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Mitt Romney - “Mitt Romney came late to the Iowa game, holding off for fear of being trounced by attacks from more conservative party members,” says Steele. “But in light of Newt Gingrich’s difficulties and a split conservative vote, he’s hoping to squeak through and win, which may be the case.” Steele thinks Romney could place first or second, and he’s betting on the latter, “but it’s not necessarily momentum building because tougher races lie ahead in South Carolina and Florida.”(Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Rick Santorum - Rick Santorum has been enjoying a recent surge and is now what Steele calls “the X factor.” He’s built a traditional grassroots infrastructure on the ground in Iowa, which could boost him to second or third place, Steele predicts, although he’s still uncertain whether Santorum’s “spark will fizzle or ignite into something bigger.” If he doesn’t do well, adds Darling, “his campaign is over.”(Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

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Rick Santorum - Rick Santorum has been enjoying a recent surge and is now what Steele calls “the X factor.” He’s built a traditional grassroots infrastructure on the ground in Iowa, which could boost him to second or third place, Steele predicts, although he’s still uncertain whether Santorum’s “spark will fizzle or ignite into something bigger.” If he doesn’t do well, adds Darling, “his campaign is over.”(Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)